What’s the risk of group cycling?

Going in to lockdown seemed to happen almost overnight, but coming out (of lockdown) seems a lot more risky.   Is it?    As I’m a bit of a numbers nerd, I have been following the statistics throughout the epidemic, and I’d like to share a few facts, and a few opinions, that might help you decide.

Key points:

• London is at least 40x safer than at the peak (early April), and much safer than other areas of England, Wales and Scotland, (based on confirmed daily cases).
• Transmission seems to be much reduced outdoors.
• There are risks of airborne transmission if you cycle too close to the person in front (one study found that 2 metres separation when stationary is the equivalent of 20 metres at 20mph)
• This all assumes social distancing AND hand hygiene – especially after touching anything that someone else has touched
• As cyclists, we are used to managing risk on the roads.
• On a group ride with 10 metre spacing, you largely control your own risk by managing the distance  from the person in front.   This is unlike in a supermarket, pavement or towpath.
• However, if you do catch it, the risks of serious illness or even death are still similar to those at the start of the lockdown.  Age and pre-existing conditions increase the risks considerably.

So the risks are different for everyone, and perhaps equally important – everyone’s attitude to risk (their “risk appetite”) is different.  If you have a partner, they will have an important opinion too.  Which means you have to make your own mind up what’s right for you.

How many people in London are infectious?

I have focused on new daily cases (rather than deaths or hospital admissions) since these reflect people that are potentially outdoors and infected.   As London encountered its peak earlier than other areas of the UK, London’s daily new cases fell rapidly in early May, whereas some parts of the UK still have high levels.   This may be because the virus peaked earlier in London, but it has not been widely reported, nor explained fully in reports I’ve seen.

New cases in London are now down to around 25 per day over the last 12 days, down from around 1000/day during the first week of April.   And this is despite a huge increase in testing.  Most people weren’t being tested in April, so the 1000/day was almost certainly a huge under-estimate.   If people are infectious for a week, that means there around 200 confirmed infected people at large in the whole of London.  Some of these will be self-isolating (after they develop symptoms) and out of circulation, but others will have no symptoms yet still be infectious (especially children).

Let’s say 400 infectious people in London out of 9 million.  That’s 1 in 22,000.  If you meet one of those, and you are socially distancing, you shouldn’t catch the virus.   Go closer, or stay near them for longer, and the risk increases.   If you touch something they have touched, and then touch your face, the risk is high.   For a group with five other riders, that’s statistically a 1 in 4,500 chance that one of them is infected.

My own opinion is that Londoners who’ve been properly social distancing have virtually no chance of having the virus now.  It’s those who ignore the rules that are still spreading it, (and, sadly, those who find it difficult to follow the rules, in places like care homes and prisons).  There are many more than 400 people who are still sharing picnics in the park, playing basketball, meeting illicitly and being closer than 2m together.  Despite this, the number of cases is reducing week by week.

Taking sensible risks

Paul Kelly made the point (on Facebook) that as cyclists, we take sensible risks all the time.  Potholes, motorists, fast descents, blind corners, bad weather, punctures, and so on.    Coronavirus is another one to add to the mix.   His conclusion was that “Stay Alert” is what we always have to do when we’re cycling.   Anticipate the risks, and take avoiding action.  So maybe there are some ways to manage the Coronavirus risk, if you do decide you want to join a group ride:

• Scrupulous hand hygiene if you touch things (loos, taps, takeaway or shared food, other bikes, doors & gates)
• Social distancing at all times (and think about how long you’re near someone)
• Stay outside (so be prepared for rain)
• Choose your friends – be cautious of risk-takers
• Keep a big gap between you and the person in front.   If you overtake, you have to leave them a big gap before pulling in – if in doubt, stay behind.
• Riding side-by-side but 2m apart?  The risk could be lower but nobody knows.   You and your riding partner may be conducting medical research.
• If you feel ill, stay at home – sharing is not caring in this case.

Conclusion

Yes, there are some added risks of group riding – there always were – but there are also risks of staying at home.  And there’s a benefit of cycling whether in a group or solo.  If it’s not for you, then perhaps solo cycling might be the answer for a while.  Risk versus benefit - the balance is different for each person.  As a club, we will be trying to find the best way to run safe group rides for those who would like to join us.