I first posted about this in June, as we resumed cycling. What’s changed?
We’ve been successful in running group rides in groups of six (hurray!)
Pubs, etc, have strong Covid measures to protect us, and we are now allowed to meet indoors.
The number of infectious people around is higher. Daily confirmed cases in London have gone up massively from 25 in June, to 760 now. BUT more people are being tested. More young people are infected now, but that’s changing. Cases are still much higher now than in June.
We have got used to wearing masks, social distancing, and groups of six. BUT some have become complacent.
There are better treatments, and your chance of serious illness is somewhat lower but still rises sharply with age.
Most of us are going out more and mixing with more people.
Back in June I estimated that 1 in 22,000 Londoners were infected at the time. By the same method of guesstimating, it might now be 1 in 800*. Meet 5 other people for a ride, and there’s a 1 in 160 chance that one of them is infected. Do ten rides, and there’s a 1 in 16 chance. Every person you meet increases the risk. Scary or … not?
What’s not changed? The virus is still highly infectious, it still spreads in the same way, through the air and through touch. You don’t know you’re infectious for several days. The protections are still the same boring old things:
Stay at home if you’re ill, and get a test.
Wash your hands.
Two metre spacing (do we EVER do this?).
Good ventilation. Cycling is good!
Cycling is one of the safer activities, because you are outdoors, getting exercise (good for the immune system) and naturally distanced from others. And most of us like each other’s company! Cafe stops, especially indoors, are more risky, so it’s worth being extra careful about the precautions we all know and love.
How to stay safe? Safest of all is to stay at home, but when you go out, limit the time you spend near other people, and limit the number of people you meet. You WILL encounter infected people. Assume everyone is infectious (including yourself), and actually follow the guidance on how to protect each other. It’s hard, but if we do all this, we can reduce the risk.
* PS. The Office for National Statistics estimates that 1 in 200 people are infected, across the whole country. This includes areas where the infection rate is higher than London, but it also suggests that my estimate for London, above, might be a bit low.
The daily case numbers have been updated with the new figures recently issued after the “glitch” in reporting cases during the last week.
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